That’s Gonna Leave a Mark

A framework to assess impacts of this and other presidencies

American presidents have significant power. Each administration impacts the nation and world. How much and in what particular ways merits exploration. Assessing their impacts during and after terms in office is crucial for maintaining a free society. The results inform us about policies or future candidates to support or not. Vince Lombardi famously asked “What the hell’s going on out here?!” Understanding is easier with effective assessment frameworks. The one below incorporates both sources and types of impacts administrations have. It allows for comparing presidents with each other and to a competent ideal.

Ways they can positively impact the world:

Things they SAY (in speeches, interviews, or on social media) to

• Inform people (e.g., of urgent threats or opportunities to serve)
• Inspire rational or cooperative action to overcome challenges
• Console or otherwise help us grieve in times of loss

Things they DO in an official capacity (via bills and executive orders) to

• Prepare for and coordinate effective federal responses to disasters
• Improve healthcare or education quality and access
• Protect food, water, electricity, and other infrastructures
• Broker or otherwise promote peace in places with armed conflict

Things they DO in general (including in unofficial capacities) to

• Model healthy, caring, productive, or other virtuous behaviors
• Project resolve, respect, empathy, patience, accountability, or other competent leadership characteristics

Who and what can be positively impacted:

1. People in the U.S. and beyond

— Their thoughts

• Awareness and understanding of events
• Ideas for solutions to regional, national, or international issues
• Distinguishing between well-founded arguments and unfounded conspiracy theories

— Feelings

• Courage and compassion in responding to tragedies
• Pride about being represented by talented people of high character
• Inspiration to serve others and take responsibility and initiative

— Beliefs about

• Active leadership roles internationally for the POTUS and the nation
• The importance of democracy and rule of law
• Protecting a just and representative electoral system
• Exposing and opposing local, national, and international corruption

— Actions

• Providing and consuming goods and services in generally beneficial ways
• Participating in civics (e.g., voting to protect community interests, protesting injustice, advocating for effective policies, or volunteering)
• Making informed personal and professional life decisions

2. National and international institutions

— Increasing governmental accountability and transparency

• Modeling taking accountability for words and actions
• Respecting inspectors general and other checks and balances
• Protecting whistle-blowers

— Strengthening American and global political systems

• Elevating discourse and debate quality
• Increasing democratic participation and civic engagement
• Enhancing campaign finance transparency
• Increasing cooperation between nations on global issues

— Promoting trust in the judiciary

• Appointing competent judges committed to serving citizens’ interests
• Modeling respect for judges and legal proceedings

— Supporting efficient government agencies and beneficial public and private industries

• Increasing access to quality education, healthcare, and livable wages
• Attracting high-quality employees
• Supporting hospitable environmental conditions
• Incentivizing public benefit in general

Considerations for effective assessment

Need for transparency

Using a framework like this requires access to certain information. The harder that is, the likelier an administration is corrupt. Those focused on serving us would generally want people to see the evidence. Step 1: following the money. Donations to campaigns and inaugurations flow in. Tax breaks, business subsidies, and budget allocations flow out. This allows for distinguishing lip from actual service. Transparency in media is also key. Investigative journalists must explain their source vetting process, declare any conflicts of interest, and issue corrections for any mistakes or conclusions contradicted by new evidence. That includes when assessing presidencies.

Scope of influence

Administrations words and actions matter, but they are not alone in shaping events and outcomes. It’s crucial to avoid oversimplifying or overstating causal relationships. For instance, economies don’t really belong to a president. Their policies and speeches can influence markets and other parts of economies, but so does the inherited structure, long-term trends, cultural traditions, weather events, location of natural resources, etc. We must not conflate influence over pieces with control over the whole.

The nature of different impacts

The above hypothetical examples are mainly positive. They represent opportunities to improve people’s lives. Sometimes presidents miss opportunities. Or they might use them to cause harm (e.g., using a platform to spread lies about a political opponent). In other cases short and longer-term impacts of a policy differ. We could earn revenue selling weapons to Saudi Arabia that ultimately endanger American and other lives.

The relative importance of impacts

Some impacts are more significant than others. For instance, the amount of pride or shame a single group feels about a leader is less important than if a bunch of people live or die based on their policies. In addition, maximizing short-term corporate profits tends to serve fewer people than building economies more resilient to pandemics or climate disruption.

Fast stats or checks

— For execution of the office:

• Number of bills signed into law, including compared to campaign promises
• Number of executive orders

— For conduct:

• Number and types of laws questioned or possibly broken
• Examples of intimidation tactics used for political effect
• Indictments, convictions, and impeachments

— For communication:

• Number of lies or misleading statements made
• Accuracy of predictions for policy and other outcomes

— For team quality:

• Qualifications and conflicts of interest for cabinet members and advisors
• Appointees with Senate confirmation
• Vetting and accountability measures to encourage integrity while serving
• Turnover rate, investigation count, and reasons for leaving or being let go

Net impacts of an administration

Estimating these requires weighing a variety of outcomes and considering trends. Overall in what ways did their words and actions inform, confuse, unify, divide, inspire, or discourage constructive participation? In what conditions did they inherit and leave democratic institutions?

Extra thought: applications to our own lives

Holding presidents accountable is important. So is doing the same for ourselves. While our platforms and impacts tend to be smaller, they still count, particularly for others in our communities. So we can apply parts of the framework to ourselves. For instance, are we contributing positively through our general behavior modeling, conversations, social media posts, business and personal activities?

Informed voters tend to make better decisions. This assessment framework is designed to clarify how presidencies impact lives. That knowledge can support learning and choosing political leaders wisely. Ideally it also helps us avoid impacts like that left by a sail boat boom hitting the back of Tommy Callahan’s head. We don’t need more of those kinds of marks.

Next up: an evaluation of the current administration. It compliments assessment but is more about assigning grades for performance.